Fury/Wilder: Tyson should win with a knockout.

Its not so clear as it sounds though.  Tyson should be coming it at about 270 or a bit below. Deontay might come in around 220 or a bit higher.  Almost 50 pounds the difference.  To me I think the heavyweights have been coming in way too heavy.  The only exceptions being Wilder, and Anthony Joshua just in his last fight.   Maybe you’d have to make another exception with Tyson Fury, since he’s the only fellow that can be elusive when flat-footed.  Plus Tyson has had mental health problems.  Its probably important for him to be healthy generally.  Being super-skinny might not be right for him.

Tyson has lost all that extra flab around his waist.  He’s got more muscle and less fat then before.  This is a fellow who beat Klitchco carrying a spare tire.

Now how will the fight go? Tyson is a bit nutty he’s determined to go right at Wilder.  He’s actually going to try to knock out Wilder out in the second round.  I don’t think this is like Ali telegraphing that he’s going to dance and then lying against the ropes.  I think he’s actually going to try and do it.  So the first two rounds will be very intense.  Tyson should win both of them.

Wilder seems to be anticipating this sort of thing.  Such little footage as we have has him working on his hooks.  Now Anthony Ruiz is known for his unbelievable hooks.  Anthony should be down at 230 so he can go side to side with these taller guys … but I digress. Wilders not known for his hooks.  He’s known for his killer right that comes from quite a long way out for everyone else, but almost at mid-range for Fury.

Wilders not known for his hooks but they may be looking better than before in preparation for a lot of inside fighting.  Why would two fighters, not known for incredible inside fighting start trying to punch on close up?  Well its because they will be both in the same boat.  I heard a story about this UFC fight where both fighters were famed grapplers.  So you would expect them to take it to the ground right away.  But since they were both famed grapplers they just punched on.

Now consider this.  Wilders team might have played iterations on this story and figured if the tall guy was going in for the kill they could get all traditional on him.  Deontay outreaches everyone else.  Deontay at 81 and The Gypsy at 83.  So Deontay hasn’t had to set everyone up for the big right hand by way of hooks to the body.  Which is the normal traditional way of things.  If Tyson goes for the knockout and gets real close, then Deontay displays a heretofore unknown facility with hard hooks to the body, thats a great setup for the big right hand.

Tyson has got to worry about the big right hand.  But he’s also got to worry about his right eye opening up again.  He’s got a fellow called “Stitch Duran” in his corner but he’s gong to be really worried about protecting that eye.  This may mean fighting Southpaw stance a lot of the time and going back to orthodox, when in trouble or when seeking the knockdown.  Otto opened up his right eye with a left fist, but fighting Southpaw.  It might seem paradoxical to be protecting a right eye, having it forward like that, with a right jab.  But a right jab can be a good shield.

Now since the first two rounds will be so intense, and Tyson will be 19 stone, there will have to be a slowing down in the pace after that.  Tyson will have to regain some gas, and so he’ll return to a kind of elusiveness and energy-saving.  This is where everything gets to be so unpredictable.  Coming from my point of view,  where I almost always think lighter is better.  This is where my analysis might break down because carrying 19 stone its going to be hard to find the energy to finish Deontay off.  If he can finish Deontay off it will be after a bunch of energy-saving rounds.

About now I better address the implausibility of a knock-out given what people have seen from Tyson in the last few fights.  The most elusive fellow in the division with some of the weakest punches ever.  Almost as elusive as 66-67 Ali but only punching as hard as Ali.  Which is not very hard at all for someone who fights flat-footed.

I am somewhat relying on the attitude of Big John Fury here.  He didn’t want the first Wilder fight.  He reckons the young fellow was as weak as a chicken and still recovering from the difficulties involved with losing ten stone.  Other information coming out of the camp is suggesting that Tyson Fury is now hitting hard.  Really hard.  John Fury reckons that on the day that Tyson fought Wilder,  Lennox Lewis at his best could have cleaned up Tyson pretty easily.   An interesting admission.  One which I concur with,  since I think of Lennox as a fantastically complete fighter,  and the right weight and height. But Big John reckons the youngster is much better now.

Its so hard to imagine Deontay Wilder ever getting knocked out.  But still he’s only human.  Even though I’m picking Tyson to win, you can see that by my analysis, there is a few holes in that narrative.  Tyson having to drag 19 stone around the ring for that long.

How could things go the other way?  I mentioned the close in body hook scenario.  Also consider the shock of fighting Tyson the last time where Deontay had never met someone so hard to hit? Deontay confused and throwing haymakers at empty air? I think he was completely bamboozled.  Now he’s had a chance to try and work around that and adjust.  So the capacity to adjust, to this magical gypsy evasiveness, has to be what Deontay has been working on in the interim.

The other thing that could go wrong is the idea if you are fighting southpaw to protect your eye, your liver is vulnerable to someone whose great with the hooks.  Heretofore Wilder hasn’t been all that much of a threat in that department.  But he’s been working on it.

I’ve said that Tyson will win and I’ve outlined the parameters in such a way as you may not be convinced.  You may take my observations and extrapolations seriously and yet by your own estimations divine from this many opportunities for Deontay to knock the Gypsy Ninja clean out.

So while I’m picking Fury here, one can only really predict that the first two rounds will be intense. And after that the crystal ball clouds up.  Its going to be an interesting fight. Some people are picking a boring fight.

 

 

 

Not me.

70 thoughts on “Fury/Wilder: Tyson should win with a knockout.

  1. The ref would call it off if it was anyone else. Don’t really want to see Wilder hurt this badly. Still Tyson can burn out. If I could see it I could tell if Tyson can was working too hard to sustain.

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  2. The ref has called it off. Or it may be that Wilder’s side threw in the towel. I think they threw in the towel and Wilder is angry about it. But you cannot let a boxer damage himself permanently.

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  3. Okay so things went pretty close to how I said they would go. The reason I’ve been able to call the last two fights is because I’ve been able to get the camp footage. Get inside peoples head. See their form. I could never have called this one prior to youtube.

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  4. Well its official. Big Tom Fury was right. Tyson is not a soft puncher any more. He punches real hard now. There was a body blow that knocked Wilder clear off his feet. A hook that Ruiz could be proud of.

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  5. Deontay Wilders footwork shown to be completely unsound when he’s been forced backward. He needs to delay any rematch until he can sort it out because his game has to be fully reworked. This analysis shows why his corner was right to throw in the towel. The situation was completely untenable.

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  6. If you have reflux protect your innards with coconut oil. Use apple cider vinegar and mineral water, through a straw to help digest protein. And just use antacids if you really have to. But this is failure also. Never use Nexium. Anybody using Nexium has just reduced their life expectancy to about 15 years.

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  7. Amazing that Anand has a gig as an editor for Time Magazine. Time is a long-standing CIA rag. It may be that its because Anand is not a small government egailitarian. The oligarchy is fine with us swinging between socialism and capitalism with these guys raking off the top no matter what. But what they cannot tolerate is small government egalitarianism.

    The ponzi-money system has turned our billionaires into welfare queens. This is something that recovering fans of Ayn Rand did not anticipate. That the moochers like the fictional Orren Boyle and James Taggart in her big book, would start seeing themselves as Hank Reardon. Since the death of Steve Jobs, people have looked at their remaining billionaires and have wondered what the hell they were good for? Its not like they are ship-builders, dirigibles builders or something of that sort. Its not like they are setting up floating safe nuclear all around the coast.

    To get to where the productive people are the rich people, the best and almost only tax rort ought to be reinvested profits in a sole trader context. We need Georgist land tax and we need 100% backing in banking. We need to be low debt and in the “growth-deflation” pocket from a monetary point of view.

    Its not like we need to get rid of the dream of a well-balanced Misean economy, with very little government overhead. But clearly remedial action needs to be taken. I think Andrew Yang has it right, at least for the next 50 years. Probably more like 100 years. But at least for 50 years after all the good policy settings are in place.

    If we have Andrew Yangs subsidy, then we can start getting rid of all the bullshit jobs. Not only in government. But in banking, big business, pharmaceuticals, administrators in education. There are so many bullshit jobs out there that can be culled.

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  8. I don’t think we should go down that road of threatening peoples jobs on the basis of allowing freedom of expression. Sinclairs real crime is his censorship. Censorship of saner economic voices, at a time when his country was being hollowed out and turned into debt slaves. You don’t want to be abusing this outrageous censor for free expression. That sounds like you are running cover for him.

    Catallaxy seems to have adopted my earlier writing style right into its DNA. I don’t see much wrong with that screed. Not that I’d be talking about failed tribes of no consequence. There is only one really damaging tribe out there. But I think this screed is identifying very real problems with disease containment and weaponised immigration. People are at war with us, and immigration is one more weapon in that war.

    Plus that Irish queer thats been sucking up so much of the nations wealth to go into his personal account; he really is a bit of a menace.

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  9. Pete Buttgieg out of the race. Thank goodness for that. That horrible little degenerate billionaire has inadvertently done some good and wrenched votes off all the lick-ball candidates. He will be taking votes off Biden, Butt-gig and Warren. Tulsi will be being suppressed in all the usual ways including vote fraud. But its going to come down to a communist and an oligarchical lunatic who hates people.

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  10. Butt-gigs votes will go to Biden …. then the Evil dwarf Jew will grab most of those votes by way of sheer money power. Then we will see those votes go either to Trump or Bernie. So the billionaire is actually doing us a favour throwing a bunch of his money away.

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  11. From Elsewhere:

    “It is said that a mars sized object hit the earth. (I’m looking over my shoulder and I see an elephant in the room)”

    This ought to be interpreted as yet another NASA creation myth. This is their creation myth for how the moon was born. These are very primitive people and lacking in creativity. So you’ll probably get better creation myths from the Maori or the Hopi Indians. Its notable that NASA’s creation myths betray the idea that nothing is created except in violence. Its the banking dynasts state of mind. He claps his hands and people come running. He manipulates a war and he achieves some of his goals. So their universe starts with an explosion, their solar system with an implosion, their higher elements are all created in supernovae explosions and the moon is created out of a crash. All complete bullshit and antithetical to any understanding of how complex things are manufactured.

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  12. Big Lake Almaty. I deduced that this lake would be unnaturally low in deuterium. So before I was unemployed for the last ten months out of 12, I was seriously going to try and import my drinking water from here:

    Also notice here we have perfection at last with regards to the female booty. The black girls have an edge, with their desert-evolved black ass. But its seldom just right. Either they are about to waddle into the desert and its too big. Or they are crawling on all fours towards the Oasis and their ass is too scrawny. But this one white girl has got her butt tuned to perfection.

    Just in passing; What a sweet song. Make no mistake about it. The biggest concern of a happy young girl ought to be, to become a happy older girl. And this song is rare in that it reflects this reality.

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