Its not so clear as it sounds though. Tyson should be coming it at about 270 or a bit below. Deontay might come in around 220 or a bit higher. Almost 50 pounds the difference. To me I think the heavyweights have been coming in way too heavy. The only exceptions being Wilder, and Anthony Joshua just in his last fight. Maybe you’d have to make another exception with Tyson Fury, since he’s the only fellow that can be elusive when flat-footed. Plus Tyson has had mental health problems. Its probably important for him to be healthy generally. Being super-skinny might not be right for him.
Tyson has lost all that extra flab around his waist. He’s got more muscle and less fat then before. This is a fellow who beat Klitchco carrying a spare tire.
Now how will the fight go? Tyson is a bit nutty he’s determined to go right at Wilder. He’s actually going to try to knock out Wilder out in the second round. I don’t think this is like Ali telegraphing that he’s going to dance and then lying against the ropes. I think he’s actually going to try and do it. So the first two rounds will be very intense. Tyson should win both of them.
Wilder seems to be anticipating this sort of thing. Such little footage as we have has him working on his hooks. Now Anthony Ruiz is known for his unbelievable hooks. Anthony should be down at 230 so he can go side to side with these taller guys … but I digress. Wilders not known for his hooks. He’s known for his killer right that comes from quite a long way out for everyone else, but almost at mid-range for Fury.
Wilders not known for his hooks but they may be looking better than before in preparation for a lot of inside fighting. Why would two fighters, not known for incredible inside fighting start trying to punch on close up? Well its because they will be both in the same boat. I heard a story about this UFC fight where both fighters were famed grapplers. So you would expect them to take it to the ground right away. But since they were both famed grapplers they just punched on.
Now consider this. Wilders team might have played iterations on this story and figured if the tall guy was going in for the kill they could get all traditional on him. Deontay outreaches everyone else. Deontay at 81 and The Gypsy at 83. So Deontay hasn’t had to set everyone up for the big right hand by way of hooks to the body. Which is the normal traditional way of things. If Tyson goes for the knockout and gets real close, then Deontay displays a heretofore unknown facility with hard hooks to the body, thats a great setup for the big right hand.
Tyson has got to worry about the big right hand. But he’s also got to worry about his right eye opening up again. He’s got a fellow called “Stitch Duran” in his corner but he’s gong to be really worried about protecting that eye. This may mean fighting Southpaw stance a lot of the time and going back to orthodox, when in trouble or when seeking the knockdown. Otto opened up his right eye with a left fist, but fighting Southpaw. It might seem paradoxical to be protecting a right eye, having it forward like that, with a right jab. But a right jab can be a good shield.
Now since the first two rounds will be so intense, and Tyson will be 19 stone, there will have to be a slowing down in the pace after that. Tyson will have to regain some gas, and so he’ll return to a kind of elusiveness and energy-saving. This is where everything gets to be so unpredictable. Coming from my point of view, where I almost always think lighter is better. This is where my analysis might break down because carrying 19 stone its going to be hard to find the energy to finish Deontay off. If he can finish Deontay off it will be after a bunch of energy-saving rounds.
About now I better address the implausibility of a knock-out given what people have seen from Tyson in the last few fights. The most elusive fellow in the division with some of the weakest punches ever. Almost as elusive as 66-67 Ali but only punching as hard as Ali. Which is not very hard at all for someone who fights flat-footed.
I am somewhat relying on the attitude of Big John Fury here. He didn’t want the first Wilder fight. He reckons the young fellow was as weak as a chicken and still recovering from the difficulties involved with losing ten stone. Other information coming out of the camp is suggesting that Tyson Fury is now hitting hard. Really hard. John Fury reckons that on the day that Tyson fought Wilder, Lennox Lewis at his best could have cleaned up Tyson pretty easily. An interesting admission. One which I concur with, since I think of Lennox as a fantastically complete fighter, and the right weight and height. But Big John reckons the youngster is much better now.
Its so hard to imagine Deontay Wilder ever getting knocked out. But still he’s only human. Even though I’m picking Tyson to win, you can see that by my analysis, there is a few holes in that narrative. Tyson having to drag 19 stone around the ring for that long.
How could things go the other way? I mentioned the close in body hook scenario. Also consider the shock of fighting Tyson the last time where Deontay had never met someone so hard to hit? Deontay confused and throwing haymakers at empty air? I think he was completely bamboozled. Now he’s had a chance to try and work around that and adjust. So the capacity to adjust, to this magical gypsy evasiveness, has to be what Deontay has been working on in the interim.
The other thing that could go wrong is the idea if you are fighting southpaw to protect your eye, your liver is vulnerable to someone whose great with the hooks. Heretofore Wilder hasn’t been all that much of a threat in that department. But he’s been working on it.
I’ve said that Tyson will win and I’ve outlined the parameters in such a way as you may not be convinced. You may take my observations and extrapolations seriously and yet by your own estimations divine from this many opportunities for Deontay to knock the Gypsy Ninja clean out.
So while I’m picking Fury here, one can only really predict that the first two rounds will be intense. And after that the crystal ball clouds up. Its going to be an interesting fight. Some people are picking a boring fight.